Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Final, recorded 4 h ago · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Tuesday, Sep 15, 12:15 AM · outdoors
Denver Broncos0–1 · Elo 1547 · Bo Nix
10–31
Kansas City Chiefs
1–0 · Elo 1518 · Patrick Mahomes (+51) · Home
Final: DEN 10, KC 31. Elo moved KC 1488 → 1518 and DEN 1577 → 1547.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | KC | DEN | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | KC 52% | 52% | 48% | +2.0 | KC 1488 vs DEN 1577, implied spread KC −0.4 |
| Closing spread | KC 57% | 57% | 43% | +6.5 | KC -2.5 |
| The blend | KC 56% | 56% | 44% | +5.6 |
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The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Kansas City Chiefs over the Broncos: Elo 52%, market 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Mahomes is worth 51 Elo.
Details
- Rest: KC 7 days, DEN 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: KC +51 (Patrick Mahomes), DEN -1 (Bo Nix). How that works.
- Weather. No forecast was recorded for this game.
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.