Elo ratings
Average is 1505. Every 25 points of gap is about one point of spread; home field is worth 48. QB shown is who the model expects to start next. Updated 9/18/2026, 6:24:01 AM.
| # | Team | QB | Record | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Seattle Seahawks | Drew Lock | 1-0 | 1636 |
| 2 |  Buffalo Bills | Josh Allen | 2-0 | 1612 |
| 3 |  San Francisco 49ers | Brock Purdy | 1-0 | 1584 |
| 4 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | Trevor Lawrence | 1-0 | 1571 |
| 5 |  New England Patriots | Drake Maye | 0-1 | 1564 |
| 6 |  Baltimore Ravens | Lamar Jackson | 1-0 | 1559 |
| 7 |  Chicago Bears | Caleb Williams | 1-0 | 1557 |
| 8 |  Houston Texans | C.J. Stroud | 0-1 | 1556 |
| 9 |  Minnesota Vikings | Carson Wentz | 1-0 | 1555 |
| 10 |  Denver Broncos | Bo Nix | 0-1 | 1547 |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Rams | Matthew Stafford | 0-1 | 1545 |
| 12 |  Philadelphia Eagles | Jalen Hurts | 1-0 | 1539 |
| 13 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | Aaron Rodgers | 1-0 | 1526 |
| 14 |  Detroit Lions | Jared Goff | 1-1 | 1519 |
| 15 |  Kansas City Chiefs | Patrick Mahomes | 1-0 | 1518 |
| 16 | TBD | 0-0 | 1505 | |
| 17 |  Cincinnati Bengals | Joe Burrow | 1-0 | 1505 |
| 18 |  Green Bay Packers | Jordan Love | 0-1 | 1500 |
| 19 |  Arizona Cardinals | Jacoby Brissett | 1-0 | 1488 |
| 20 |  Los Angeles Chargers | Justin Herbert | 0-1 | 1481 |
| 21 |  New York Giants | Jaxson Dart | 1-0 | 1474 |
| 22 |  Indianapolis Colts | Daniel Jones | 0-1 | 1472 |
| 23 |  New Orleans Saints | Tyler Shough | 0-1 | 1472 |
| 24 |  Washington Commanders | Jayden Daniels | 0-1 | 1467 |
| 25 |  Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Baker Mayfield | 0-1 | 1466 |
| 26 |  Atlanta Falcons | Cooper Rush | 0-1 | 1465 |
| 27 |  Dallas Cowboys | Dak Prescott | 0-1 | 1449 |
| 28 |  New York Jets | Geno Smith | 1-0 | 1444 |
| 29 |  Miami Dolphins | Malik Willis | 0-1 | 1440 |
| 30 |  Carolina Panthers | Bryce Young | 0-1 | 1431 |
| 31 |  Cleveland Browns | Deshaun Watson | 0-1 | 1423 |
| 32 |  Las Vegas Raiders | Kirk Cousins | 1-0 | 1420 |
| 33 |  Tennessee Titans | Cam Ward | 0-1 | 1364 |