Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Final, recorded 4 h ago · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 13, 8:25 PM · dome
Miami Dolphins0–1 · Elo 1440 · Malik Willis (+100)
13–27
Las Vegas Raiders
1–0 · Elo 1420 · Kirk Cousins (+78) · Home
Final: MIA 13, LV 27. Elo moved LV 1387 → 1420 and MIA 1472 → 1440.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LV | MIA | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIA 58% | 42% | 58% | -8.6 | LV 1387 vs MIA 1472, implied spread LV +2.4 |
| Closing spread | LV 59% | 59% | 41% | +8.2 | LV -3 |
| The blend | LV 55% | 55% | 45% | +4.8 |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Las Vegas Raiders over the Dolphins: Elo 42%, market 59%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 78 Elo; Willis is worth 100 Elo.
Details
- Rest: LV 7 days, MIA 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: LV +78 (Kirk Cousins), MIA +100 (Malik Willis). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.