New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
Final, recorded 4 h ago · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Thursday, Sep 10, 12:20 AM · outdoors
New England Patriots0–1 · Elo 1564 · Drake Maye
10–13
Seattle Seahawks
1–0 · Elo 1636 · Drew Lock (-34) · Home
Final: NE 10, SEA 13. Elo moved SEA 1625 → 1636 and NE 1575 → 1564.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | SEA | NE | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SEA 59% | 59% | 41% | +8.2 | SEA 1625 vs NE 1575, implied spread SEA −2.5 |
| Closing spread | SEA 59% | 59% | 41% | +8.2 | SEA -3 |
| The blend | SEA 61% | 61% | 39% | +9.8 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Seattle Seahawks over the Patriots: Elo 59%, market 59%. Tight agreement: go above both. Lock is costing 34 Elo.
Details
- Rest: SEA 7 days, NE 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: SEA -34 (Drew Lock), NE +1 (Drake Maye). How that works.
- Weather. No forecast was recorded for this game.
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.