New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Final, recorded 4 h ago · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 13, 5:00 PM · dome
New Orleans Saints0–1 · Elo 1472 · Tyler Shough (-18)
30–31
Detroit Lions
1–1 · Elo 1519 · Jared Goff · Home
Final: NO 30, DET 31. Elo moved DET 1531 → 1535 and NO 1476 → 1472.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DET | NO | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DET 67% | 67% | 33% | +14.1 | DET 1531 vs NO 1476, implied spread DET −4.8 |
| Closing spread | DET 70% | 70% | 30% | +16.0 | DET -7 |
| The blend | DET 71% | 71% | 29% | +16.6 |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Detroit Lions over the Saints: Elo 67%, market 70%. Tight agreement: go above both. Shough is costing 18 Elo.
Details
- Rest: DET 7 days, NO 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: DET 0 (Jared Goff), NO -18 (Tyler Shough). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.