Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Final, recorded 4 h ago · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 13, 5:00 PM · outdoors
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0–1 · Elo 1466 · Baker Mayfield
27–33
Cincinnati Bengals
1–0 · Elo 1505 · Joe Burrow (+18) · Home
Final: TB 27, CIN 33. Elo moved CIN 1490 → 1505 and TB 1481 → 1466.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | CIN | TB | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CIN 61% | 61% | 39% | +9.8 | CIN 1490 vs TB 1481, implied spread CIN −3.0 |
| Closing spread | CIN 60% | 60% | 40% | +9.0 | CIN -3.5 |
| The blend | CIN 62% | 62% | 38% | +10.6 |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Cincinnati Bengals over the Buccaneers: Elo 61%, market 60%. Tight agreement: go above both. Burrow is worth 18 Elo.
Details
- Rest: CIN 7 days, TB 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: CIN +18 (Joe Burrow), TB 0 (Baker Mayfield). How that works.
- Weather. No forecast was recorded for this game.
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.