Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Final, recorded 3 h ago · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 13, 5:00 PM · closed
Buffalo Bills2–0 · Elo 1612 · Josh Allen (-11)
36–31
Houston Texans
0–1 · Elo 1556 · C.J. Stroud · Home
Final: BUF 36, HOU 31. Elo moved HOU 1578 → 1556 and BUF 1573 → 1595.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | HOU | BUF | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | HOU 59% | 59% | 41% | -9.8 | HOU 1578 vs BUF 1573, implied spread HOU −2.6 |
| Closing spread | BUF 54% | 46% | 54% | +3.8 | HOU +1.5 |
| The blend | BUF 51% | 49% | 51% | +1.0 |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Buffalo Bills over the Texans: Elo 41%, market 54%. Big disagreement: trust the market number.
Details
- Rest: HOU 7 days, BUF 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: HOU +1 (C.J. Stroud), BUF -11 (Josh Allen). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.