Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Final, recorded 3 h ago · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 13, 5:00 PM · outdoors
Cleveland Browns0–1 · Elo 1423 · Deshaun Watson (+38)
10–34
Jacksonville Jaguars
1–0 · Elo 1571 · Trevor Lawrence · Home
Final: CLE 10, JAX 34. Elo moved JAX 1551 → 1571 and CLE 1444 → 1423.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | JAX | CLE | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | JAX 67% | 67% | 33% | +14.1 | JAX 1551 vs CLE 1444, implied spread JAX −4.8 |
| Closing spread | JAX 74% | 74% | 26% | +18.2 | JAX -8.5 |
| The blend | JAX 72% | 72% | 28% | +17.2 |
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The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Jacksonville Jaguars over the Browns: Elo 67%, market 74%. Clear favorite, take the average. Watson is worth 38 Elo.
Details
- Rest: JAX 7 days, CLE 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: JAX +3 (Trevor Lawrence), CLE +38 (Deshaun Watson). How that works.
- Weather. No forecast was recorded for this game.
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.