Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Final, recorded 3 h ago · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 13, 8:25 PM · dome
Green Bay Packers0–1 · Elo 1500 · Jordan Love
22–39
Minnesota Vikings
1–0 · Elo 1555 · Carson Wentz (+47) · Home
Final: GB 22, MIN 39. Elo moved MIN 1536 → 1555 and GB 1519 → 1500.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIN | GB | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIN 66% | 66% | 34% | +13.4 | MIN 1536 vs GB 1519, implied spread MIN −4.5 |
| Closing spread | MIN 54% | 54% | 46% | +3.8 | MIN -1.5 |
| The blend | MIN 57% | 57% | 43% | +6.5 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Minnesota Vikings over the Packers: Elo 66%, market 54%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 47 Elo.
Details
- Rest: MIN 7 days, GB 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: MIN +47 (Carson Wentz), GB +0 (Jordan Love). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.