Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Game data updated 26 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 11, 2026 · Friday, Nov 20, 1:15 AM · closed
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | HOU | IND | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | HOU 69% | 69% | 31% | HOU 1556 vs IND 1472, implied spread HOU −5.5 |
| Closing spread | HOU 66% | 66% | 34% | HOU -5.5 |
| The blend | HOU 69% | 69% | 31% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Houston Texans over the Colts: Elo 69%, market 66%. Tight agreement: go above both.
Details
- Rest: HOU 4 days, IND 4 days.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.