Beat the models, one Sunday at a time.

Delta Sunday is a free NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against three forecasters: Elo, a rating system built from results alone; the market, what the sportsbooks and prediction markets say; and the blend, our own, backtested on 24 seasons.

  1. Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you. Free.
  2. Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
  3. Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Week 11

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. Elo is the model you're trying to beat. The spread, sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are shown for reference, and they compete on the leaderboard too. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

Friday, Nov 20
INDColts
Elo: HOU 69%Spread: HOU 66%
TexansHOU
Away1:15 AMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
Elo 31%
Spread 34%
Jones
no pick yet
Elo 69%
Spread 66%
Stroud
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INDHOU
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Sunday, Nov 22
MIADolphins
Elo: BUF 67%Spread: BUF 80%
BillsBUF
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 33%
Spread 20%
Willis (+90)
no pick yet
Elo 67%
Spread 80%
Allen
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MIABUF
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NOSaints
Elo: CHI 73%Spread: CHI 69%
BearsCHI
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 27%
Spread 31%
Shough (-16)
no pick yet
Elo 73%
Spread 69%
off bye · Williams
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NOCHI
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TENTitans
Elo: DAL 68%Spread: DAL 69%
CowboysDAL
Away6:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
Elo 32%
Spread 31%
Ward (+19)
no pick yet
Elo 68%
Spread 69%
Prescott (+17)
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TENDAL
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TBBuccaneers
Elo: DET 61%Spread: DET 63%
LionsDET
Away6:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
Elo 39%
Spread 37%
Mayfield · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 61%
Spread 63%
Goff
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TBDET
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ARICardinals
Elo: KC 72%Spread: KC 80%
ChiefsKC
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 28%
Spread 20%
Brissett (-40)
no pick yet
Elo 72%
Spread 80%
Mahomes (+46)
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ARIKC
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JAXJaguars
Elo: JAX 54%Spread: JAX 54%
GiantsNYG
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 54%
Spread 54%
Lawrence
no pick yet
Elo 46%
Spread 46%
off bye · Dart
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JAXNYG
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BALRavens
Elo: BAL 62%Spread: BAL 63%
PanthersCAR
Away6:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
Elo 62%
Spread 63%
Jackson (+13)
no pick yet
Elo 38%
Spread 37%
Young
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BALCAR
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NYJJets
Elo: LAC 61%Spread: LAC 76%
ChargersLAC
Away9:05 PMHome
Elo 39%
Spread 24%
Smith (+22)
no pick yet
Elo 61%
Spread 76%
Herbert (+18)
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NYJLAC
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LVRaiders
Elo: DEN 68%Spread: DEN 71%
BroncosDEN
Away9:25 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
Elo 32%
Spread 29%
Cousins (+70)
no pick yet
Elo 68%
Spread 71%
off bye · Nix
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LVDEN
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PITSteelers
Elo: PHI 65%Spread: PHI 66%
EaglesPHI
Away9:25 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 1 pts apart
Elo 35%
Spread 34%
Rodgers
no pick yet
Elo 65%
Spread 66%
off bye · Hurts (+17)
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PITPHI
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Monday, Nov 23
MINVikings
Elo: MIN 52%Spread: SF 60%
49ersSF
Neutral site1:20 AM
Elo 52%
Spread 40%
Wentz (+43)
no pick yet
Elo 48%
Spread 60%
Purdy
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MINSF
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Tuesday, Nov 24
CINBengals
Elo: WSH 55%Spread: CIN 54%
CommandersWSH
Away1:15 AMHome
Elo 45%
Spread 54%
Burrow (+17)
no pick yet
Elo 55%
Spread 46%
off bye · Daniels (+15)
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CINWSH
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