Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Game data updated 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 11, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 22, 9:25 PM · outdoors
Las Vegas Raiders1–0 · Elo 1420 · Kirk Cousins (+70)
Denver Broncos
0–1 · Elo 1547 · Bo Nix · off a bye · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DEN | LV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DEN 68% | 68% | 32% | DEN 1547 vs LV 1420, implied spread DEN −5.2 |
| Closing spread | DEN 71% | 71% | 29% | DEN -7.5 |
| The blend | DEN 72% | 72% | 28% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Denver Broncos over the Raiders: Elo 68%, market 71%. Tight agreement: go above both. Cousins is worth 70 Elo; DEN off a bye.
Details
- Rest: DEN 14 days, LV 7 days. DEN off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: DEN -1 (Bo Nix), LV +70 (Kirk Cousins). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.