Beat the models, one Sunday at a time.

Delta Sunday is a free NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against three forecasters: Elo, a rating system built from results alone; the market, what the sportsbooks and prediction markets say; and the blend, our own, backtested on 24 seasons.

  1. Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you. Free.
  2. Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
  3. Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Week 14

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. Elo is the model you're trying to beat. The spread, sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are shown for reference, and they compete on the leaderboard too. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

Friday, Dec 11
MINVikings
Elo: NE 52%Spread: NE 63%
PatriotsNE
Away1:15 AMHome
Elo 48%
Spread 37%
Wentz (+43)
no pick yet
Elo 52%
Spread 63%
Maye
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
MINNE
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Sunday, Dec 13
ATLFalcons
Elo: CLE 59%Spread: CLE 54%
BrownsCLE
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 41%
Spread 46%
Rush (-26)
no pick yet
Elo 59%
Spread 54%
Watson (+34)
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ATLCLE
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TENTitans
Elo: DET 74%Spread: DET 71%
LionsDET
Away6:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
Elo 26%
Spread 29%
Ward (+19)
no pick yet
Elo 74%
Spread 71%
Goff
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TENDET
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CHIBears
Elo: MIA 53%Spread: CHI 66%
DolphinsMIA
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 47%
Spread 66%
Williams
no pick yet
Elo 53%
Spread 34%
Willis (+90)
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CHIMIA
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DENBroncos
Elo: DEN 51%Spread: DEN 66%
JetsNYJ
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 51%
Spread 66%
Nix
no pick yet
Elo 49%
Spread 34%
off bye · Smith (+22)
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DENNYJ
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INDColts
Elo: PHI 66%Spread: PHI 66%
EaglesPHI
Away6:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
Elo 34%
Spread 34%
Jones · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 66%
Spread 66%
Hurts (+17)
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INDPHI
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HOUTexans
Elo: HOU 54%Spread: HOU 54%
CommandersWSH
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 54%
Spread 54%
Stroud
no pick yet
Elo 46%
Spread 46%
Daniels (+15)
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HOUWSH
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NOSaints
Elo: CAR 54%Spread: CAR 57%
PanthersCAR
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 46%
Spread 43%
Shough (-16)
no pick yet
Elo 54%
Spread 57%
Young
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NOCAR
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TBBuccaneers
Elo: BAL 74%Spread: BAL 67%
RavensBAL
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 26%
Spread 33%
Mayfield
no pick yet
Elo 74%
Spread 67%
off bye · Jackson (+13)
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TBBAL
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LACChargers
Elo: LV 59%Spread: LAC 66%
RaidersLV
Away9:05 PMHome
Elo 41%
Spread 66%
Herbert (+18)
no pick yet
Elo 59%
Spread 34%
off bye · Cousins (+70)
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LACLV
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KCChiefs
Elo: KC 53%Spread: CIN 54%
BengalsCIN
Away9:25 PMHome
Elo 53%
Spread 46%
Mahomes (+46) · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 47%
Spread 54%
Burrow (+17)
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KCCIN
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LARRams
Elo: SF 59%Spread: LAR 54%
49ersSF
Away9:25 PMHome
Elo 41%
Spread 54%
Stafford · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 59%
Spread 46%
Purdy
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LARSF
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NYGGiants
Elo: SEA 74%Spread: SEA 71%
SeahawksSEA
Away9:25 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
Elo 26%
Spread 29%
Dart
no pick yet
Elo 74%
Spread 71%
Lock (-30)
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NYGSEA
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Monday, Dec 14
BUFBills
Elo: BUF 58%Spread: GB 54%
PackersGB
Away1:20 AMHome
Elo 58%
Spread 46%
Allen
no pick yet
Elo 42%
Spread 54%
Love
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BUFGB
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Tuesday, Dec 15
PITSteelers
Elo: JAX 64%Spread: JAX 59%
JaguarsJAX
Away1:15 AMHome
Elo 36%
Spread 41%
Rodgers
no pick yet
Elo 64%
Spread 59%
Lawrence
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PITJAX
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