Beat the models, one Sunday at a time.

Delta Sunday is a free NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against three forecasters: Elo, a rating system built from results alone; the market, what the sportsbooks and prediction markets say; and the blend, our own, backtested on 24 seasons.

  1. Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you. Free.
  2. Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
  3. Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Week 6

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. Elo is the model you're trying to beat. The spread, sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are shown for reference, and they compete on the leaderboard too. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

Friday, Oct 16
SEASeahawks
Elo: SEA 52%Spread: SEA 54%
BroncosDEN
Away12:15 AMHome
Elo 52%
Spread 54%
Lock (-30)
no pick yet
Elo 48%
Spread 46%
Nix
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SEADEN
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Sunday, Oct 18
HOUTexans
Elo: JAX 52%Spread: JAX 54%
JaguarsJAX
Neutral site1:30 PM
Elo 48%
Spread 46%
Stroud
no pick yet
Elo 52%
Spread 54%
Lawrence
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HOUJAX
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CHIBears
Elo: CHI 60%Spread: CHI 59%
FalconsATL
Away5:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 1 pts apart
Elo 60%
Spread 59%
Williams
no pick yet
Elo 40%
Spread 41%
Rush (-26)
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CHIATL
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BALRavens
Elo: BAL 60%Spread: BAL 69%
BrownsCLE
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 60%
Spread 69%
Jackson (+13)
no pick yet
Elo 40%
Spread 31%
Watson (+34)
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BALCLE
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TENTitans
Elo: IND 68%Spread: IND 60%
ColtsIND
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 32%
Spread 40%
Ward (+19)
no pick yet
Elo 68%
Spread 60%
Jones
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TENIND
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NYJJets
Elo: NE 70%Spread: NE 76%
PatriotsNE
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 30%
Spread 24%
Smith (+22)
no pick yet
Elo 70%
Spread 76%
Maye
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NYJNE
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NOSaints
Elo: NYG 59%Spread: NYG 57%
GiantsNYG
Away5:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
Elo 41%
Spread 43%
Shough (-16)
no pick yet
Elo 59%
Spread 57%
Dart
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NONYG
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CARPanthers
Elo: PHI 69%Spread: PHI 69%
EaglesPHI
Away5:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
Elo 31%
Spread 31%
Young · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 69%
Spread 69%
Hurts (+17)
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CARPHI
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PITSteelers
Elo: TB 52%Spread: TB 54%
BuccaneersTB
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 48%
Spread 46%
Rodgers
no pick yet
Elo 52%
Spread 54%
off bye · Mayfield
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PITTB
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ARICardinals
Elo: LAR 70%Spread: LAR 84%
RamsLAR
Away8:05 PMHome
Elo 30%
Spread 16%
Brissett (-40)
no pick yet
Elo 70%
Spread 84%
Stafford
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ARILAR
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LACChargers
Elo: KC 69%Spread: KC 57%
ChiefsKC
Away8:25 PMHome
Elo 31%
Spread 43%
Herbert (+18)
no pick yet
Elo 69%
Spread 57%
off bye · Mahomes (+46)
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LACKC
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BUFBills
Elo: BUF 59%Spread: BUF 69%
RaidersLV
Away8:25 PMHome
Elo 59%
Spread 69%
Allen
no pick yet
Elo 41%
Spread 31%
Cousins (+70)
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BUFLV
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Monday, Oct 19
DALCowboys
Elo: GB 58%Spread: GB 59%
PackersGB
Away12:20 AMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
Elo 42%
Spread 41%
Prescott (+17) · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 58%
Spread 59%
Love
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DALGB
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Tuesday, Oct 20
WSHCommanders
Elo: SF 70%Spread: SF 66%
49ersSF
Away12:15 AMHome
Elo 30%
Spread 34%
Daniels (+15)
no pick yet
Elo 70%
Spread 66%
Purdy
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WSHSF
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