Beat the models, one Sunday at a time.

Delta Sunday is a free NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against three forecasters: Elo, a rating system built from results alone; the market, what the sportsbooks and prediction markets say; and the blend, our own, backtested on 24 seasons.

  1. Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you. Free.
  2. Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
  3. Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Week 9

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. Elo is the model you're trying to beat. The spread, sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are shown for reference, and they compete on the leaderboard too. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

Friday, Nov 6
JAXJaguars
Elo: BAL 57%Spread: BAL 63%
RavensBAL
Away1:15 AMHome
Elo 43%
Spread 37%
Lawrence
no pick yet
Elo 57%
Spread 63%
Jackson (+13)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
JAXBAL
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Sunday, Nov 8
CINBengals
Elo: CIN 62%Spread: CIN 66%
FalconsATL
Neutral site2:30 PM
Elo 62%
Spread 66%
Burrow (+17)
no pick yet
Elo 38%
Spread 34%
Rush (-26)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
CINATL
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DALCowboys
Elo: IND 57%Spread: DAL 54%
ColtsIND
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 43%
Spread 54%
Prescott (+17)
no pick yet
Elo 57%
Spread 46%
Jones
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
DALIND
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NYJJets
Elo: KC 70%Spread: KC 76%
ChiefsKC
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 30%
Spread 24%
Smith (+22)
no pick yet
Elo 70%
Spread 76%
Mahomes (+46)
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NYJKC
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DETLions
Elo: MIA 58%Spread: DET 69%
DolphinsMIA
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 42%
Spread 69%
Goff
no pick yet
Elo 58%
Spread 31%
Willis (+90)
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DETMIA
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CLEBrowns
Elo: NO 60%Spread: NO 60%
SaintsNO
Away6:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
Elo 40%
Spread 40%
Watson (+34)
no pick yet
Elo 60%
Spread 60%
off bye · Shough (-16)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
CLENO
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NYGGiants
Elo: PHI 65%Spread: PHI 66%
EaglesPHI
Away6:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
Elo 35%
Spread 34%
Dart · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 65%
Spread 66%
Hurts (+17)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
NYGPHI
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LARRams
Elo: LAR 52%Spread: LAR 66%
CommandersWSH
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 52%
Spread 66%
Stafford
no pick yet
Elo 48%
Spread 34%
Daniels (+15)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
LARWSH
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DENBroncos
Elo: DEN 55%Spread: DEN 59%
PanthersCAR
Away6:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 4 pts apart
Elo 55%
Spread 59%
Nix
no pick yet
Elo 45%
Spread 41%
off bye · Young
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DENCAR
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HOUTexans
Elo: HOU 55%Spread: LAC 57%
ChargersLAC
Away9:05 PMHome
Elo 55%
Spread 43%
Stroud · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 45%
Spread 57%
Herbert (+18)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
HOULAC
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LVRaiders
Elo: SF 72%Spread: SF 74%
49ersSF
Away9:05 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 1 pts apart
Elo 28%
Spread 26%
Cousins (+70)
no pick yet
Elo 72%
Spread 74%
off bye · Purdy
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LVSF
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GBPackers
Elo: NE 62%Spread: NE 54%
PatriotsNE
Away9:25 PMHome
Elo 38%
Spread 46%
Love · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 62%
Spread 54%
Maye
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GBNE
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ARICardinals
Elo: SEA 76%Spread: SEA 84%
SeahawksSEA
Away9:25 PMHome
Elo 24%
Spread 16%
Brissett (-40)
no pick yet
Elo 76%
Spread 84%
Lock (-30)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
ARISEA
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Monday, Nov 9
TBBuccaneers
Elo: CHI 69%Spread: CHI 60%
BearsCHI
Away1:20 AMHome
Elo 31%
Spread 40%
Mayfield
no pick yet
Elo 69%
Spread 60%
Williams
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
TBCHI
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Tuesday, Nov 10
BUFBills
Elo: MIN 56%Spread: BUF 59%
VikingsMIN
Away1:15 AMHome
Elo 44%
Spread 59%
Allen
no pick yet
Elo 56%
Spread 41%
Wentz (+43)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
BUFMIN
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