Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
Game data updated 14 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 8, 6:00 PM · dome
Cleveland Browns0–1 · Elo 1423 · Deshaun Watson (+34)
New Orleans Saints
0–1 · Elo 1472 · Tyler Shough (-16) · off a bye · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NO | CLE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NO 60% | 60% | 40% | NO 1472 vs CLE 1423, implied spread NO −2.9 |
| Closing spread | NO 60% | 60% | 40% | NO -3.5 |
| The blend | NO 62% | 62% | 38% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
New Orleans Saints over the Browns: Elo 60%, market 60%. Tight agreement: go above both. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Watson is worth 34 Elo; NO off a bye.
Details
- Rest: NO 14 days, CLE 7 days. NO off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: NO -16 (Tyler Shough), CLE +34 (Deshaun Watson). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.