Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
Game data updated 15 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · Tuesday, Nov 10, 1:15 AM · dome
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIN | BUF | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIN 56% | 56% | 44% | MIN 1555 vs BUF 1612, implied spread MIN −1.7 |
| Closing spread | BUF 59% | 41% | 59% | MIN +3 |
| The blend | BUF 55% | 45% | 55% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Buffalo Bills over the Vikings: Elo 44%, market 59%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 43 Elo.
Details
- Rest: MIN 8 days, BUF 8 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: MIN +43 (Carson Wentz), BUF -9 (Josh Allen). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.