Beat the models, one Sunday at a time.

Delta Sunday is a free NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against three forecasters: Elo, a rating system built from results alone; the market, what the sportsbooks and prediction markets say; and the blend, our own, backtested on 24 seasons.

  1. Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you. Free.
  2. Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
  3. Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Week 1

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. Elo is the model you're trying to beat. The spread, sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are shown for reference, and they compete on the leaderboard too. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

Thursday, Sep 10
NEPatriots
Elo: SEA 59%Spread: SEA 59%
1013
SeahawksSEA
Away12:20 AMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
Elo 41%
Spread 41%
Maye
no pick
Elo 59%
Spread 59%
Lock (-34)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
Friday, Sep 11
SF49ers
Elo: LAR 54%Spread: LAR 60%
277
RamsLAR
Neutral site12:35 AM
Elo 46%
Spread 40%
Purdy
no pick
Elo 54%
Spread 60%
Stafford
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
Sunday, Sep 13
TBBuccaneers
Elo: CIN 61%Spread: CIN 60%
2733
BengalsCIN
Away5:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
Elo 39%
Spread 40%
Mayfield
no pick
Elo 61%
Spread 60%
Burrow (+18)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
NOSaints
Elo: DET 67%Spread: DET 70%
3031
LionsDET
Away5:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
Elo 33%
Spread 30%
Shough (-18)
no pick
Elo 67%
Spread 70%
Goff
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
NYJJets
Elo: TEN 53%Spread: TEN 54%
2310
TitansTEN
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 47%
Spread 46%
Smith (+24)
no pick
Elo 53%
Spread 54%
Ward (+21)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
BALRavens
Elo: BAL 50%Spread: BAL 59%
4123
ColtsIND
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 50%
Spread 59%
Jackson (+15)
no pick
Elo 50%
Spread 41%
Jones
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
ATLFalcons
Elo: PIT 65%Spread: PIT 69%
1320
SteelersPIT
Away5:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
Elo 35%
Spread 31%
Rush (-29)
no pick
Elo 65%
Spread 69%
Rodgers
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
CHIBears
Elo: CHI 52%Spread: CHI 59%
5937
PanthersCAR
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 52%
Spread 59%
Williams
no pick
Elo 48%
Spread 41%
Young
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
CLEBrowns
Elo: JAX 67%Spread: JAX 74%
1034
JaguarsJAX
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 33%
Spread 26%
Watson (+38)
no pick
Elo 67%
Spread 74%
Lawrence
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
BUFBills
Elo: HOU 59%Spread: BUF 54%
3631
TexansHOU
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 41%
Spread 54%
Allen (-11)
no pick
Elo 59%
Spread 46%
Stroud
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
MIADolphins
Elo: MIA 58%Spread: LV 59%
1327
RaidersLV
Away8:25 PMHome
Elo 58%
Spread 41%
Willis (+100)
no pick
Elo 42%
Spread 59%
Cousins (+78)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
GBPackers
Elo: MIN 66%Spread: MIN 54%
2239
VikingsMIN
Away8:25 PMHome
Elo 34%
Spread 46%
Love
no pick
Elo 66%
Spread 54%
Wentz (+47)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
WSHCommanders
Elo: PHI 65%Spread: PHI 67%
2224
EaglesPHI
Away8:25 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
Elo 35%
Spread 33%
Daniels (+17)
no pick
Elo 65%
Spread 67%
Hurts (+19)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
ARICardinals
Elo: LAC 75%Spread: LAC 74%
2614
ChargersLAC
Away8:25 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 1 pts apart
Elo 25%
Spread 26%
Brissett (-44)
no pick
Elo 75%
Spread 74%
Herbert (+20)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
Monday, Sep 14
DALCowboys
Elo: NYG 51%Spread: DAL 59%
2028
GiantsNYG
Away12:20 AMHome
Elo 49%
Spread 59%
Prescott (+19)
no pick
Elo 51%
Spread 41%
Dart
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
Tuesday, Sep 15
DENBroncos
Elo: KC 52%Spread: KC 57%
1031
ChiefsKC
Away12:15 AMHome
Elo 48%
Spread 43%
Nix
no pick
Elo 52%
Spread 57%
Mahomes (+51)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.