Beat the models, one Sunday at a time.

Delta Sunday is a free NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against three forecasters: Elo, a rating system built from results alone; the market, what the sportsbooks and prediction markets say; and the blend, our own, backtested on 24 seasons.

Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you. Free.
Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Create a free account How it works See this week's numbers

Week 18

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. Elo is the model you're trying to beat. The spread, sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are shown for reference, and they compete on the leaderboard too. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Wild Card Divisional Conf. Champ.Super Bowl

Sunday, Jan 10

NYJJets

BillsBUF

Away5:00 AMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 1 pts apart

—

Elo 24%

Spread 23%

Smith (+22)

no pick yet

—

Elo 76%

Spread 77%

Allen

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NYJBUF

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CLEBrowns

BengalsCIN

Away5:00 AMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 1 pts apart

—

Elo 30%

Spread 29%

Watson (+34)

no pick yet

—

Elo 70%

Spread 71%

off bye · Burrow (+17)

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CLECIN

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LACChargers

BroncosDEN

Away5:00 AMHome

—

Elo 41%

Spread 46%

Herbert (+18)

no pick yet

—

Elo 59%

Spread 54%

Nix

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LACDEN

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DETLions

PackersGB

Away5:00 AMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart

—

Elo 44%

Spread 43%

Goff

no pick yet

—

Elo 56%

Spread 57%

Love

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DETGB

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JAXJaguars

ColtsIND

Away5:00 AMHome

—

Elo 52%

Spread 46%

Lawrence

no pick yet

—

Elo 48%

Spread 54%

Jones

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JAXIND

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LVRaiders

ChiefsKC

Away5:00 AMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart

—

Elo 30%

Spread 26%

Cousins (+70)

no pick yet

—

Elo 70%

Spread 74%

Mahomes (+46)

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LVKC

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SEASeahawks

RamsLAR

Away5:00 AMHome

—

Elo 47%

Spread 41%

Lock (-30)

no pick yet

—

Elo 53%

Spread 59%

Stafford

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SEALAR

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CHIBears

VikingsMIN

Away5:00 AMHome

—

Elo 41%

Spread 46%

Williams

no pick yet

—

Elo 59%

Spread 54%

Wentz (+43)

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CHIMIN

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MIADolphins

PatriotsNE

Away5:00 AMHome

—

Elo 30%

Spread 22%

Willis (+90)

no pick yet

—

Elo 70%

Spread 78%

Maye

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MIANE

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TBBuccaneers

SaintsNO

Away5:00 AMHome

—

Elo 50%

Spread 54%

Mayfield

no pick yet

—

Elo 50%

Spread 46%

Shough (-16)

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TBNO

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PHIEagles

GiantsNYG

Away5:00 AMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart

—

Elo 57%

Spread 59%

Hurts (+17)

no pick yet

—

Elo 43%

Spread 41%

Dart

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PHINYG

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SF49ers

CardinalsARI

Away5:00 AMHome

—

Elo 68%

Spread 74%

Purdy

no pick yet

—

Elo 32%

Spread 26%

Brissett (-40)

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SFARI

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DALCowboys

CommandersWSH

Away5:00 AMHome

—

Elo 48%

Spread 54%

Prescott (+17)

no pick yet

—

Elo 52%

Spread 46%

Daniels (+15)

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DALWSH

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ATLFalcons

PanthersCAR

Away5:00 AMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart

—

Elo 43%

Spread 43%

Rush (-26)

no pick yet

—

Elo 57%

Spread 57%

Young

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ATLCAR

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PITSteelers

RavensBAL

Away5:00 AMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart

—

Elo 34%

Spread 34%

Rodgers

no pick yet

—

Elo 66%

Spread 66%

off bye · Jackson (+13)

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PITBAL

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TENTitans

TexansHOU

Away5:00 AMHome

—

Elo 26%

Spread 30%

Ward (+19)

no pick yet

—

Elo 74%

Spread 70%

Stroud

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TENHOU

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