Beat the models, one Sunday at a time. Delta Sunday is a free NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against three forecasters: Elo , a rating system built from results alone; the market , what the sportsbooks and prediction markets say; and the blend , our own, backtested on 24 seasons.
Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you. Free.Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.Week 2 Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. Elo is the model you're trying to beat. The spread, sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are shown for reference, and they compete on the leaderboard too. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.
Friday, Sep 18
DET Lions Elo: BUF 64% Spread: BUF 66% 31–41
Bills BUF Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
no pick
—
Elo 64%
Spread 66%
Allen (-10)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
Sunday, Sep 20
CAR Panthers Elo: ATL 57% Market: CAR 57% Spread: CAR 57% Falcons ATL —
Elo 43%
Spread 57%
Books 57% · Kalshi 56% · Poly 57%
Young
no pick yet
—
Elo 57%
Spread 43%
Books 43% · Kalshi 44% · Poly 43%
Rush (-26)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
CAR 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 ATL
Use blend 47% Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.
CIN Bengals Elo: HOU 62% Market: HOU 58% Spread: HOU 57% Texans HOU —
Elo 38%
Spread 43%
Books 43% · Kalshi 42% · Poly 43%
Burrow (+17)
no pick yet
—
Elo 62%
Spread 57%
Books 57% · Kalshi 59% · Poly 57%
Stroud
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
CIN 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 HOU
Use blend 59% Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.
MIN Vikings Elo: CHI 51% Market: CHI 66% Spread: CHI 63% Bears CHI wind 9 mph, 65°F
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Elo 49%
Spread 37%
Books 34% · Kalshi 35% · Poly 35%
Wentz (+43)
no pick yet
—
Elo 51%
Spread 63%
Books 66% · Kalshi 66% · Poly 66%
Williams
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
MIN 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 CHI
Use blend 62% Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.
NO Saints Elo: BAL 72% Market: BAL 78% Spread: BAL 71% Ravens BAL wind 7 mph, 75°F
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Elo 28%
Spread 29%
Books 23% · Kalshi 21% · Poly 21%
Shough (-16)
no pick yet
—
Elo 72%
Spread 71%
Books 77% · Kalshi 79% · Poly 79%
Jackson (+13)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
NO 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 BAL
Use blend 77% Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.
CLE Browns Elo: TB 58% Market: TB 78% Spread: TB 74% Buccaneers TB wind 4 mph, 89°F (heat hurts favorites)
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Elo 42%
Spread 26%
Books 22% · Kalshi 21% · Poly 21%
Watson (+34)
no pick yet
—
Elo 58%
Spread 74%
Books 78% · Kalshi 79% · Poly 79%
Mayfield
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
CLE 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 TB
Use blend 73% Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.
PHI Eagles Elo: PHI 67% Market: PHI 75% Spread: PHI 70% Titans TEN wind 5 mph, 89°F (heat hurts favorites)
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Elo 67%
Spread 70%
Books 74% · Kalshi 76% · Poly 76%
Hurts (+17)
no pick yet
—
Elo 33%
Spread 30%
Books 26% · Kalshi 25% · Poly 25%
Ward (+19)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
PHI 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 TEN
Use blend 27% Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.
PIT Steelers Elo: NE 66% Market: NE 68% Spread: NE 66% Patriots NE Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
wind 3 mph, 58°F
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Elo 34%
Spread 34%
Books 32% · Kalshi 31% · Poly 31%
Rodgers
no pick yet
—
Elo 66%
Spread 66%
Books 68% · Kalshi 69% · Poly 69%
off bye · Maye
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
PIT 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 NE
Use blend 70% Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.
GB Packers Elo: NYJ 52% Market: GB 62% Spread: GB 60% Jets NYJ wind 7 mph, 62°F
—
Elo 48%
Spread 60%
Books 62% · Kalshi 62% · Poly 62%
Love
no pick yet
—
Elo 52%
Spread 40%
Books 38% · Kalshi 39% · Poly 39%
Smith (+22)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
GB 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 NYJ
Use blend 42% Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.
JAX Jaguars Elo: DEN 53% Market: DEN 58% Spread: DEN 57% Broncos DEN wind 11 mph, 75°F
—
Elo 47%
Spread 43%
Books 42% · Kalshi 42% · Poly 42%
Lawrence
no pick yet
—
Elo 53%
Spread 57%
Books 58% · Kalshi 59% · Poly 59%
Nix
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
JAX 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 DEN
Use blend 57% Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.
LV Raiders Elo: LAC 58% Market: LAC 72% Spread: LAC 69% Chargers LAC —
Elo 42%
Spread 31%
Books 28% · Kalshi 28% · Poly 28%
Cousins (+70)
no pick yet
—
Elo 58%
Spread 69%
Books 72% · Kalshi 73% · Poly 73%
Herbert (+18)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
LV 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 LAC
Use blend 69% Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.
WSH Commanders Elo: DAL 55% Market: DAL 65% Spread: DAL 60% Cowboys DAL —
Elo 45%
Spread 40%
Books 35% · Kalshi 35% · Poly 35%
Daniels (+15)
no pick yet
—
Elo 55%
Spread 60%
Books 65% · Kalshi 66% · Poly 66%
Prescott (+17)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
WSH 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 DAL
Use blend 63% Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.
SEA Seahawks Elo: SEA 68% Market: SEA 65% Spread: SEA 60% Cardinals ARI Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
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Elo 68%
Spread 60%
Books 65% · Kalshi 66% · Poly 66%
Lock (-30) · off bye
no pick yet
—
Elo 32%
Spread 40%
Books 35% · Kalshi 35% · Poly 35%
Brissett (-40)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
SEA 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 ARI
Use blend 32% Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.
MIA Dolphins Elo: SF 67% Market: SF 89% Spread: SF 84% 49ers SF wind 7 mph, 74°F
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Elo 33%
Spread 16%
Books 13% · Kalshi 10% · Poly 10%
Willis (+90)
no pick yet
—
Elo 67%
Spread 84%
Books 87% · Kalshi 90% · Poly 90%
off bye · Purdy
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
MIA 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 SF
Use blend 83% Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.
Monday, Sep 21
IND Colts Elo: KC 70% Market: KC 73% Spread: KC 69% Chiefs KC Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
wind 12 mph, 75°F
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Elo 30%
Spread 31%
Books 28% · Kalshi 28% · Poly 27%
Jones
no pick yet
—
Elo 70%
Spread 69%
Books 72% · Kalshi 73% · Poly 74%
Mahomes (+46)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
IND 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 KC
Use blend 74% Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.
Tuesday, Sep 22
NYG Giants Elo: LAR 70% Market: LAR 74% Spread: LAR 70% Rams LAR —
Elo 30%
Spread 30%
Books 26% · Kalshi 26% · Poly 26%
Dart
no pick yet
—
Elo 70%
Spread 70%
Books 74% · Kalshi 75% · Poly 75%
off bye · Stafford
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
NYG 90 80 70 60 50/50 60 70 80 90 LAR
Use blend 73% Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.