Beat the models, one Sunday at a time.

Delta Sunday is a free NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against three forecasters: Elo, a rating system built from results alone; the market, what the sportsbooks and prediction markets say; and the blend, our own, backtested on 24 seasons.

  1. Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you. Free.
  2. Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
  3. Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Week 2

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. Elo is the model you're trying to beat. The spread, sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are shown for reference, and they compete on the leaderboard too. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

Friday, Sep 18
DETLions
Elo: BUF 64%Spread: BUF 66%
3141
BillsBUF
Away12:15 AMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
Elo 36%
Spread 34%
Goff
no pick
Elo 64%
Spread 66%
Allen (-10)
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
Sunday, Sep 20
CARPanthers
Elo: ATL 57%Market: CAR 57%Spread: CAR 57%
FalconsATL
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 43%
Spread 57%
Books 57% · Kalshi 56% · Poly 57%
Young
no pick yet
Elo 57%
Spread 43%
Books 43% · Kalshi 44% · Poly 43%
Rush (-26)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
CARATL
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CINBengals
Elo: HOU 62%Market: HOU 58%Spread: HOU 57%
TexansHOU
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 38%
Spread 43%
Books 43% · Kalshi 42% · Poly 43%
Burrow (+17)
no pick yet
Elo 62%
Spread 57%
Books 57% · Kalshi 59% · Poly 57%
Stroud
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
CINHOU
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MINVikings
Elo: CHI 51%Market: CHI 66%Spread: CHI 63%
BearsCHI
Away5:00 PMHome
wind 9 mph, 65°F
Elo 49%
Spread 37%
Books 34% · Kalshi 35% · Poly 35%
Wentz (+43)
no pick yet
Elo 51%
Spread 63%
Books 66% · Kalshi 66% · Poly 66%
Williams
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
MINCHI
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NOSaints
Elo: BAL 72%Market: BAL 78%Spread: BAL 71%
RavensBAL
Away5:00 PMHome
wind 7 mph, 75°F
Elo 28%
Spread 29%
Books 23% · Kalshi 21% · Poly 21%
Shough (-16)
no pick yet
Elo 72%
Spread 71%
Books 77% · Kalshi 79% · Poly 79%
Jackson (+13)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
NOBAL
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CLEBrowns
Elo: TB 58%Market: TB 78%Spread: TB 74%
BuccaneersTB
Away5:00 PMHome
wind 4 mph, 89°F (heat hurts favorites)
Elo 42%
Spread 26%
Books 22% · Kalshi 21% · Poly 21%
Watson (+34)
no pick yet
Elo 58%
Spread 74%
Books 78% · Kalshi 79% · Poly 79%
Mayfield
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
CLETB
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PHIEagles
Elo: PHI 67%Market: PHI 75%Spread: PHI 70%
TitansTEN
Away5:00 PMHome
wind 5 mph, 89°F (heat hurts favorites)
Elo 67%
Spread 70%
Books 74% · Kalshi 76% · Poly 76%
Hurts (+17)
no pick yet
Elo 33%
Spread 30%
Books 26% · Kalshi 25% · Poly 25%
Ward (+19)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
PHITEN
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PITSteelers
Elo: NE 66%Market: NE 68%Spread: NE 66%
PatriotsNE
Away5:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
wind 3 mph, 58°F
Elo 34%
Spread 34%
Books 32% · Kalshi 31% · Poly 31%
Rodgers
no pick yet
Elo 66%
Spread 66%
Books 68% · Kalshi 69% · Poly 69%
off bye · Maye
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PITNE
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GBPackers
Elo: NYJ 52%Market: GB 62%Spread: GB 60%
JetsNYJ
Away5:00 PMHome
wind 7 mph, 62°F
Elo 48%
Spread 60%
Books 62% · Kalshi 62% · Poly 62%
Love
no pick yet
Elo 52%
Spread 40%
Books 38% · Kalshi 39% · Poly 39%
Smith (+22)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
GBNYJ
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JAXJaguars
Elo: DEN 53%Market: DEN 58%Spread: DEN 57%
BroncosDEN
Away8:05 PMHome
wind 11 mph, 75°F
Elo 47%
Spread 43%
Books 42% · Kalshi 42% · Poly 42%
Lawrence
no pick yet
Elo 53%
Spread 57%
Books 58% · Kalshi 59% · Poly 59%
Nix
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
JAXDEN
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LVRaiders
Elo: LAC 58%Market: LAC 72%Spread: LAC 69%
ChargersLAC
Away8:05 PMHome
Elo 42%
Spread 31%
Books 28% · Kalshi 28% · Poly 28%
Cousins (+70)
no pick yet
Elo 58%
Spread 69%
Books 72% · Kalshi 73% · Poly 73%
Herbert (+18)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
LVLAC
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WSHCommanders
Elo: DAL 55%Market: DAL 65%Spread: DAL 60%
CowboysDAL
Away8:25 PMHome
Elo 45%
Spread 40%
Books 35% · Kalshi 35% · Poly 35%
Daniels (+15)
no pick yet
Elo 55%
Spread 60%
Books 65% · Kalshi 66% · Poly 66%
Prescott (+17)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
WSHDAL
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SEASeahawks
Elo: SEA 68%Market: SEA 65%Spread: SEA 60%
CardinalsARI
Away8:25 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
Elo 68%
Spread 60%
Books 65% · Kalshi 66% · Poly 66%
Lock (-30) · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 32%
Spread 40%
Books 35% · Kalshi 35% · Poly 35%
Brissett (-40)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
SEAARI
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MIADolphins
Elo: SF 67%Market: SF 89%Spread: SF 84%
49ersSF
Away8:25 PMHome
wind 7 mph, 74°F
Elo 33%
Spread 16%
Books 13% · Kalshi 10% · Poly 10%
Willis (+90)
no pick yet
Elo 67%
Spread 84%
Books 87% · Kalshi 90% · Poly 90%
off bye · Purdy
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
MIASF
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Monday, Sep 21
INDColts
Elo: KC 70%Market: KC 73%Spread: KC 69%
ChiefsKC
Away12:20 AMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
wind 12 mph, 75°F
Elo 30%
Spread 31%
Books 28% · Kalshi 28% · Poly 27%
Jones
no pick yet
Elo 70%
Spread 69%
Books 72% · Kalshi 73% · Poly 74%
Mahomes (+46)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
INDKC
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Tuesday, Sep 22
NYGGiants
Elo: LAR 70%Market: LAR 74%Spread: LAR 70%
RamsLAR
Away12:15 AMHome
Elo 30%
Spread 30%
Books 26% · Kalshi 26% · Poly 26%
Dart
no pick yet
Elo 70%
Spread 70%
Books 74% · Kalshi 75% · Poly 75%
off bye · Stafford
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
NYGLAR
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