Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Game data updated 12 min ago · markets priced 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 20, 5:00 PM · closed
Carolina Panthers
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | ATL | CAR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | ATL 57% | 57% | 43% | ATL 1465 vs CAR 1431, implied spread ATL −2.0 |
| Closing spread | CAR 57% | 43% | 57% | ATL +2.5 |
| Sportsbooks | CAR 57% | 43% | 57% | |
| Kalshi | CAR 56% | 44% | 56% | |
| Polymarket | CAR 57% | 43% | 57% | |
| The blend | CAR 53% | 47% | 53% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Carolina Panthers over the Falcons: Elo 43%, market 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Rush is costing 26 Elo.
Details
- Importance 47 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 16.
- Rest: ATL 7 days, CAR 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: ATL -26 (Cooper Rush), CAR +6 (Bryce Young). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 4 AM; last change Fri 4:37 AM. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (ATL) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 44% | 44% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 43% | 43% | — | 0 |
| Sportsbooks | 43% | 43% | — | 0 |