Predictions · Week 2
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team. Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
| Game | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at BUF | 64% | 66% | — | — | — | 67% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | DET 31, BUF 41 |
| CAR at ATL | 57% | 43% | 43% | 44% | 43% | 47% | — | — | — | 47 | Big disagreement | Sun 5:00 PM |
| CIN at HOU | 62% | 57% | 57% | 59% | 57% | 59% | — | — | — | 64 | Everything else | Sun 5:00 PM |
| MIN at CHI | 51% | 63% | 66% | 66% | 66% | 62% | — | — | — | 45 | Big disagreement | Sun 5:00 PM |
| NO at BAL | 72% | 71% | 77% | 79% | 79% | 77% | — | — | — | 46 | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | Sun 5:00 PM |
| CLE at TB | 58% | 74% | 78% | 79% | 79% | 73% | — | — | — | 51 | Big disagreement | Sun 5:00 PM |
| PHI at TEN | 33% | 30% | 26% | 25% | 25% | 27% | — | — | — | 39 | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | Sun 5:00 PM |
| PIT at NE | 66% | 66% | 68% | 69% | 69% | 70% | — | — | — | 59 | Tight agreement | Sun 5:00 PM |
| GB at NYJ | 52% | 40% | 38% | 39% | 39% | 42% | — | — | — | 44 | Big disagreement | Sun 5:00 PM |
| JAX at DEN | 53% | 57% | 58% | 59% | 59% | 57% | — | — | — | 54 | Everything else | Sun 8:05 PM |
| LV at LAC | 58% | 69% | 72% | 73% | 73% | 69% | — | — | — | 53 | Big disagreement | Sun 8:05 PM |
| WSH at DAL | 55% | 60% | 65% | 66% | 66% | 63% | — | — | — | 49 | Big disagreement | Sun 8:25 PM |
| SEA at ARI | 32% | 40% | 35% | 35% | 35% | 32% | — | — | — | 52 | Tight agreement | Sun 8:25 PM |
| MIA at SF | 67% | 84% | 87% | 90% | 90% | 83% | — | — | — | 43 | Big disagreement | Sun 8:25 PM |
| IND at KC | 70% | 69% | 72% | 73% | 74% | 74% | — | — | — | 40 | Tight agreement | Mon 12:20 AM |
| NYG at LAR | 70% | 70% | 74% | 75% | 75% | 73% | — | — | — | 52 | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | Tue 12:15 AM |
| Points this week | +12.0 | +13.4 | — | — | — | +14.1 | — | — | — | on 1 decided games | ||
| Right | 1/1 | 1/1 | — | — | — | 1/1 | — | — | — | |||
The spots
Tight agreement 4 games
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
- BUF vs DET: Elo 64%, market 66%, blend 67% · DET 31, BUF 41
- NE vs PIT: Elo 66%, market 68%, blend 70%
- SEA at ARI: Elo 68%, market 65%, blend 68%
- KC vs IND: Elo 70%, market 73%, blend 74%
Big disagreement 7 games
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
- CAR at ATL: Elo 43%, market 57%
- CHI vs MIN: Elo 51%, market 66%
- TB vs CLE: Elo 58%, market 78%
- GB at NYJ: Elo 48%, market 62%
- LAC vs LV: Elo 58%, market 72%
- DAL vs WSH: Elo 55%, market 65%
- SF vs MIA: Elo 67%, market 89%
Clear favorite, mild disagreement 3 games
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
- BAL vs NO: Elo 72%, market 78%, blend 77%
- PHI at TEN: Elo 67%, market 75%, blend 73%
- LAR vs NYG: Elo 70%, market 74%, blend 73%
Everything else 2 games
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
- HOU vs CIN: Elo 62%, market 58%, blend 59%
- DEN vs JAX: Elo 53%, market 58%, blend 57%
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Closing spread | 17 | +78.2 |
| 2 | The blend | 17 | +77.4 |
| 3 | The System | 17 | +77.4 |
| 4 | Elo (the model) | 17 | +45.3 |