Predictions · Week 10
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team. Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
Our lock and bold call of the week, and our pick on every game, are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
Locks went 84% over 24 seasons; this season's record is on the leaderboard.
| Game | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH at NYG | 55% | 54% | — | — | — | 55% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Fri 1:15 AM |
| NE at DET | 43% | 54% | — | — | — | 52% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 2:30 PM |
| KC at ATL | 39% | 37% | — | — | — | 35% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| HOU at CLE | 43% | 37% | — | — | — | 38% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 6:00 PM |
| MIN at GB | 43% | 63% | — | — | — | 58% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| JAX at TEN | 31% | 43% | — | — | — | 40% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| MIA at IND | 48% | 69% | — | — | — | 63% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| CAR at NO | 60% | 54% | — | — | — | 56% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 6:00 PM |
| BUF at NYJ | 38% | 30% | — | — | — | 32% | — | — | — | — | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| SEA at LV | 40% | 30% | — | — | — | 33% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 9:05 PM |
| LAR at ARI | 43% | 22% | — | — | — | 27% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 9:05 PM |
| SF at DAL | 40% | 54% | — | — | — | 51% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 9:25 PM |
| PIT at CIN | 53% | 60% | — | — | — | 58% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Mon 1:20 AM |
| LAC at BAL | 70% | 60% | — | — | — | 63% | — | — | — | — | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | Tue 1:15 AM |
The spots
Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.
Tight agreement 1 game
Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%.
Big disagreement 7 games
Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time.
DET over NE
Elo 43% · Mkt 54%
NE at DET · Sun 2 PM
GB over MIN
Elo 43% · Mkt 63%
MIN at GB · Sun 6 PM
JAX over TEN
Elo 69% · Mkt 57%
JAX at TEN · Sun 6 PM
IND over MIA
Elo 48% · Mkt 69%
MIA at IND · Sun 6 PM
SEA over LV
Elo 60% · Mkt 70%
SEA at LV · Sun 9 PM
LAR over ARI
Elo 57% · Mkt 78%
LAR at ARI · Sun 9 PM
DAL over SF
Elo 40% · Mkt 54%
SF at DAL · Sun 9 PM
Clear favorite, mild disagreement 2 games
The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way).
Everything else 4 games
The blend is as good as anything. No edge found either way in the replays.
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Closing spread | 17 | +78.2 |
| 2 | The blend | 17 | +77.4 |
| 3 | The System | 17 | +77.4 |
| 4 | Elo (the model) | 17 | +45.3 |
| 5 | Sportsbooks | 0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | Kalshi | 0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | Polymarket | 0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | The crowd | 0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | The sharp crowd | 0 | +0.0 |