Predictions · Week 15
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team. Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
Our lock and bold call of the week, and our pick on every game, are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
Locks went 84% over 24 seasons; this season's record is on the leaderboard.
| Game | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF at LAC | 45% | 57% | — | — | — | 54% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Fri 1:15 AM |
| SEA at PHI | 50% | 54% | — | — | — | 53% | — | — | — | — | Coin flips | Sat 10:00 PM |
| CHI at BUF | 63% | 60% | — | — | — | 63% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 1:20 AM |
| CLE at NYG | 59% | 63% | — | — | — | 62% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 6:00 PM |
| BAL at PIT | 50% | 43% | — | — | — | 44% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 6:00 PM |
| NO at TB | 58% | 60% | — | — | — | 62% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| JAX at HOU | 54% | 59% | — | — | — | 58% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 6:00 PM |
| ATL at WSH | 63% | 60% | — | — | — | 63% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| MIA at GB | 53% | 78% | — | — | — | 72% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| IND at TEN | 45% | 46% | — | — | — | 45% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 6:00 PM |
| CIN at CAR | 45% | 43% | — | — | — | 41% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 6:00 PM |
| NYJ at ARI | 58% | 54% | — | — | — | 55% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 9:05 PM |
| DEN at LV | 49% | 37% | — | — | — | 40% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Sun 9:25 PM |
| DAL at LAR | 64% | 67% | — | — | — | 68% | — | — | — | — | Tight agreement | Sun 9:25 PM |
| DET at MIN | 71% | 46% | — | — | — | 52% | — | — | — | — | Big disagreement | Mon 1:20 AM |
| NE at KC | 53% | 57% | — | — | — | 56% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Tue 1:15 AM |
The spots
Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.
Tight agreement 5 games
Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%.
BUF over CHI
Elo 63% · Mkt 60% · Blend 63%
CHI at BUF · Sun 1 AM
TB over NO
Elo 58% · Mkt 60% · Blend 62%
NO at TB · Sun 6 PM
WSH over ATL
Elo 63% · Mkt 60% · Blend 63%
ATL at WSH · Sun 6 PM
CIN over CAR
Elo 55% · Mkt 57% · Blend 59%
CIN at CAR · Sun 6 PM
LAR over DAL
Elo 64% · Mkt 67% · Blend 68%
DAL at LAR · Sun 9 PM
Big disagreement 4 games
Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time.
Coin flips 1 game
Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game.
Everything else 6 games
The blend is as good as anything. No edge found either way in the replays.
NYG over CLE
Elo 59% · Mkt 63% · Blend 62%
CLE at NYG · Sun 6 PM
BAL over PIT
Elo 50% · Mkt 57% · Blend 56%
BAL at PIT · Sun 6 PM
HOU over JAX
Elo 54% · Mkt 59% · Blend 58%
JAX at HOU · Sun 6 PM
IND over TEN
Elo 55% · Mkt 54% · Blend 55%
IND at TEN · Sun 6 PM
ARI over NYJ
Elo 58% · Mkt 54% · Blend 55%
NYJ at ARI · Sun 9 PM
KC over NE
Elo 53% · Mkt 57% · Blend 56%
NE at KC · Tue 1 AM
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Closing spread | 17 | +78.2 |
| 2 | The blend | 17 | +77.4 |
| 3 | The System | 17 | +77.4 |
| 4 | Elo (the model) | 17 | +45.3 |
| 5 | Sportsbooks | 0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | Kalshi | 0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | Polymarket | 0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | The crowd | 0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | The sharp crowd | 0 | +0.0 |