New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game data updated 27 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 15, 2026 · Sunday, Dec 20, 6:00 PM · outdoors
New Orleans Saints0–1 · Elo 1472 · Tyler Shough (-16)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0–1 · Elo 1466 · Baker Mayfield · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | TB | NO | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | TB 58% | 58% | 42% | TB 1466 vs NO 1472, implied spread TB −2.3 |
| Closing spread | TB 60% | 60% | 40% | TB -3.5 |
| The blend | TB 62% | 62% | 38% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Saints: Elo 58%, market 60%. Tight agreement: go above both. Shough is costing 16 Elo.
Details
- Rest: TB 7 days, NO 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: TB 0 (Baker Mayfield), NO -16 (Tyler Shough). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.