Beat the models, one Sunday at a time.

Delta Sunday is a free NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against three forecasters: Elo, a rating system built from results alone; the market, what the sportsbooks and prediction markets say; and the blend, our own, backtested on 24 seasons.

Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you. Free.
Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Create a free account How it works See this week's numbers

Week 15

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. Elo is the model you're trying to beat. The spread, sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are shown for reference, and they compete on the leaderboard too. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Wild Card Divisional Conf. Champ.Super Bowl

Friday, Dec 18

SF49ers

ChargersLAC

Away1:15 AMHome

—

Elo 55%

Spread 43%

Purdy

no pick yet

—

Elo 45%

Spread 57%

Herbert (+18)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

SFLAC

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Saturday, Dec 19

SEASeahawks

EaglesPHI

Away10:00 PMHome

—

Elo 50%

Spread 46%

Lock (-30)

no pick yet

—

Elo 50%

Spread 54%

Hurts (+17)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

SEAPHI

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Sunday, Dec 20

CHIBears

BillsBUF

Away1:20 AMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart

—

Elo 37%

Spread 40%

Williams

no pick yet

—

Elo 63%

Spread 60%

Allen

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

CHIBUF

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MIADolphins

PackersGB

Away6:00 PMHome

—

Elo 47%

Spread 22%

Willis (+90)

no pick yet

—

Elo 53%

Spread 78%

Love

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MIAGB

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INDColts

TitansTEN

Away6:00 PMHome

—

Elo 55%

Spread 54%

Jones

no pick yet

—

Elo 45%

Spread 46%

Ward (+19)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

INDTEN

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CLEBrowns

GiantsNYG

Away6:00 PMHome

—

Elo 41%

Spread 37%

Watson (+34)

no pick yet

—

Elo 59%

Spread 63%

Dart

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

CLENYG

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BALRavens

SteelersPIT

Away6:00 PMHome

—

Elo 50%

Spread 57%

Jackson (+13)

no pick yet

—

Elo 50%

Spread 43%

Rodgers

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

BALPIT

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NOSaints

BuccaneersTB

Away6:00 PMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart

—

Elo 42%

Spread 40%

Shough (-16)

no pick yet

—

Elo 58%

Spread 60%

Mayfield

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NOTB

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ATLFalcons

CommandersWSH

Away6:00 PMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart

—

Elo 37%

Spread 40%

Rush (-26)

no pick yet

—

Elo 63%

Spread 60%

Daniels (+15)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

ATLWSH

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CINBengals

PanthersCAR

Away6:00 PMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart

—

Elo 55%

Spread 57%

Burrow (+17)

no pick yet

—

Elo 45%

Spread 43%

Young

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

CINCAR

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JAXJaguars

TexansHOU

Away6:00 PMHome

—

Elo 46%

Spread 41%

Lawrence

no pick yet

—

Elo 54%

Spread 59%

Stroud

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

JAXHOU

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NYJJets

CardinalsARI

Away9:05 PMHome

—

Elo 42%

Spread 46%

Smith (+22)

no pick yet

—

Elo 58%

Spread 54%

off bye · Brissett (-40)

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NYJARI

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DENBroncos

RaidersLV

Away9:25 PMHome

—

Elo 51%

Spread 63%

Nix

no pick yet

—

Elo 49%

Spread 37%

Cousins (+70)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

DENLV

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DALCowboys

RamsLAR

Away9:25 PMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart

—

Elo 36%

Spread 33%

Prescott (+17) · off bye

no pick yet

—

Elo 64%

Spread 67%

Stafford

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

DALLAR

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Monday, Dec 21

DETLions

VikingsMIN

Away1:20 AMHome

—

Elo 29%

Spread 54%

Goff

no pick yet

—

Elo 71%

Spread 46%

off bye · Wentz (+43)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

DETMIN

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Tuesday, Dec 22

NEPatriots

ChiefsKC

Away1:15 AMHome

—

Elo 47%

Spread 43%

Maye · off bye

no pick yet

—

Elo 53%

Spread 57%

Mahomes (+46)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

NEKC

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