San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers
Game data updated 11 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 15, 2026 · Friday, Dec 18, 1:15 AM · dome
San Francisco 49ers1–0 · Elo 1584 · Brock Purdy
Los Angeles Chargers
0–1 · Elo 1481 · Justin Herbert (+18) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LAC | SF | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SF 55% | 45% | 55% | LAC 1481 vs SF 1584, implied spread LAC +1.4 |
| Closing spread | LAC 57% | 57% | 43% | LAC -2.5 |
| The blend | LAC 54% | 54% | 46% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Los Angeles Chargers over the 49ers: Elo 45%, market 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Herbert is worth 18 Elo.
Details
- Rest: LAC 4 days, SF 4 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: LAC +18 (Justin Herbert), SF -1 (Brock Purdy). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.