Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers
Game data updated 14 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 15, 2026 · Sunday, Dec 20, 6:00 PM · outdoors
Miami Dolphins0–1 · Elo 1440 · Malik Willis (+90)
Green Bay Packers
0–1 · Elo 1500 · Jordan Love · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | GB | MIA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | GB 53% | 53% | 47% | GB 1500 vs MIA 1440, implied spread GB −0.7 |
| Closing spread | GB 78% | 78% | 22% | GB -10.5 |
| The blend | GB 72% | 72% | 28% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Green Bay Packers over the Dolphins: Elo 53%, market 78%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo.
Details
- Rest: GB 7 days, MIA 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: GB +0 (Jordan Love), MIA +90 (Malik Willis). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.