Beat the models, one Sunday at a time.

Delta Sunday is a free NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against three forecasters: Elo, a rating system built from results alone; the market, what the sportsbooks and prediction markets say; and the blend, our own, backtested on 24 seasons.

Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you. Free.
Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Create a free account How it works See this week's numbers

Week 16

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. Elo is the model you're trying to beat. The spread, sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are shown for reference, and they compete on the leaderboard too. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Wild Card Divisional Conf. Champ.Super Bowl

Friday, Dec 25

HOUTexans

EaglesPHI

Away1:15 AMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart

—

Elo 43%

Spread 43%

Stroud

no pick yet

—

Elo 57%

Spread 57%

Hurts (+17)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

HOUPHI

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GBPackers

BearsCHI

Away6:00 PMHome

—

Elo 36%

Spread 46%

Love

no pick yet

—

Elo 64%

Spread 54%

Williams

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GBCHI

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BUFBills

BroncosDEN

Away9:30 PMHome

—

Elo 51%

Spread 54%

Allen

no pick yet

—

Elo 49%

Spread 46%

Nix

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BUFDEN

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Saturday, Dec 26

LARRams

SeahawksSEA

Away1:15 AMHome

—

Elo 35%

Spread 46%

Stafford

no pick yet

—

Elo 65%

Spread 54%

Lock (-30)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

LARSEA

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Sunday, Dec 27

TBBuccaneers

FalconsATL

Away5:00 AMHome

—

Elo 47%

Spread 54%

Mayfield

no pick yet

—

Elo 53%

Spread 46%

Rush (-26)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

TBATL

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CINBengals

ColtsIND

Away5:00 AMHome

—

Elo 51%

Spread 54%

Burrow (+17)

no pick yet

—

Elo 49%

Spread 46%

Jones

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CININD

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WSHCommanders

VikingsMIN

Away5:00 AMHome

—

Elo 28%

Spread 43%

Daniels (+15)

no pick yet

—

Elo 72%

Spread 57%

Wentz (+43)

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WSHMIN

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CARPanthers

SteelersPIT

Away5:00 AMHome

—

Elo 31%

Spread 40%

Young

no pick yet

—

Elo 69%

Spread 60%

Rodgers

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CARPIT

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LACChargers

DolphinsMIA

Away6:00 PMHome

—

Elo 42%

Spread 70%

Herbert (+18) · off bye

no pick yet

—

Elo 58%

Spread 30%

Willis (+90)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

LACMIA

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ARICardinals

SaintsNO

Away6:00 PMHome

—

Elo 42%

Spread 34%

Brissett (-40)

no pick yet

—

Elo 58%

Spread 66%

Shough (-16)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

ARINO

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NEPatriots

JetsNYJ

Away6:00 PMHome

—

Elo 57%

Spread 69%

Maye

no pick yet

—

Elo 43%

Spread 31%

Smith (+22)

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NENYJ

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CLEBrowns

RavensBAL

Away6:00 PMHome

—

Elo 28%

Spread 23%

Watson (+34)

no pick yet

—

Elo 72%

Spread 77%

Jackson (+13)

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CLEBAL

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TENTitans

RaidersLV

Away9:05 PMHome

—

Elo 29%

Spread 46%

Ward (+19)

no pick yet

—

Elo 71%

Spread 54%

Cousins (+70)

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TENLV

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SF49ers

ChiefsKC

Away9:25 PMHome

—

Elo 50%

Spread 41%

Purdy · off bye

no pick yet

—

Elo 50%

Spread 59%

Mahomes (+46)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

SFKC

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Monday, Dec 28

JAXJaguars

CowboysDAL

Away1:20 AMHome

—

Elo 59%

Spread 41%

Lawrence

no pick yet

—

Elo 41%

Spread 59%

Prescott (+17)

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JAXDAL

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Tuesday, Dec 29

NYGGiants

LionsDET

Away1:15 AMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart

—

Elo 36%

Spread 37%

Dart

no pick yet

—

Elo 64%

Spread 63%

Goff

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NYGDET

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