Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys
Game data updated 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 16, 2026 · Monday, Dec 28, 1:20 AM · closed
Jacksonville Jaguars1–0 · Elo 1571 · Trevor Lawrence
Dallas Cowboys
0–1 · Elo 1449 · Dak Prescott (+17) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DAL | JAX | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | JAX 59% | 41% | 59% | DAL 1449 vs JAX 1571, implied spread DAL +2.4 |
| Closing spread | DAL 59% | 59% | 41% | DAL -3 |
| The blend | DAL 54% | 54% | 46% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Dallas Cowboys over the Jaguars: Elo 41%, market 59%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Rest: DAL 7 days, JAX 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: DAL +17 (Dak Prescott), JAX +3 (Trevor Lawrence). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.