Beat the models, one Sunday at a time.

Delta Sunday is a free NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against three forecasters: Elo, a rating system built from results alone; the market, what the sportsbooks and prediction markets say; and the blend, our own, backtested on 24 seasons.

Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you. Free.
Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Create a free account How it works See this week's numbers

Week 3

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. Elo is the model you're trying to beat. The spread, sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are shown for reference, and they compete on the leaderboard too. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Wild Card Divisional Conf. Champ.Super Bowl

Friday, Sep 25

ATLFalcons

PackersGB

Away12:15 AMHome

wind 3 mph, 55°F

—

Elo 35%

Spread 31%

Books 28% · Kalshi 28% · Poly 27%

Rush (-26)

no pick yet

—

Elo 65%

Spread 69%

Books 72% · Kalshi 73% · Poly 74%

Love

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ATLGB

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Sunday, Sep 27

NEPatriots

JaguarsJAX

Away5:00 PMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart

—

Elo 42%

Spread 43%

Maye

no pick yet

—

Elo 58%

Spread 57%

Lawrence

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NEJAX

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NYJJets

LionsDET

Away5:00 PMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart

—

Elo 33%

Spread 30%

Smith (+22)

no pick yet

—

Elo 67%

Spread 70%

off bye · Goff

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NYJDET

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HOUTexans

ColtsIND

Away5:00 PMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 1 pts apart

—

Elo 56%

Spread 57%

Stroud

no pick yet

—

Elo 44%

Spread 43%

Jones

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HOUIND

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KCChiefs

DolphinsMIA

Away5:00 PMHome

—

Elo 48%

Spread 74%

Mahomes (+46)

no pick yet

—

Elo 52%

Spread 26%

Willis (+90)

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KCMIA

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TENTitans

GiantsNYG

Away5:00 PMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart

—

Elo 31%

Spread 34%

Ward (+19)

no pick yet

—

Elo 69%

Spread 66%

Dart

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TENNYG

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CINBengals

SteelersPIT

Away5:00 PMHome

—

Elo 43%

Spread 57%

Burrow (+17)

no pick yet

—

Elo 57%

Spread 43%

Rodgers

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CINPIT

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SEASeahawks

CommandersWSH

Away5:00 PMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart

—

Elo 61%

Spread 57%

Lock (-30)

no pick yet

—

Elo 39%

Spread 43%

Daniels (+15)

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SEAWSH

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LACChargers

BillsBUF

Away5:00 PMHome

—

Elo 27%

Spread 37%

Herbert (+18)

no pick yet

—

Elo 73%

Spread 63%

off bye · Allen

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LACBUF

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CARPanthers

BrownsCLE

Away5:00 PMHome

—

Elo 40%

Spread 57%

Young

no pick yet

—

Elo 60%

Spread 43%

Watson (+34)

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CARCLE

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MINVikings

BuccaneersTB

Away8:05 PMHome

—

Elo 62%

Spread 46%

Wentz (+43)

no pick yet

—

Elo 38%

Spread 54%

Mayfield

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MINTB

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ARICardinals

49ersSF

Away8:05 PMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart

—

Elo 26%

Spread 26%

Brissett (-40)

no pick yet

—

Elo 74%

Spread 74%

Purdy

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ARISF

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BALRavens

CowboysDAL

Neutral site8:25 PM

—

Elo 65%

Spread 59%

Jackson (+13)

no pick yet

—

Elo 35%

Spread 41%

Prescott (+17)

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BALDAL

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LVRaiders

SaintsNO

Away8:25 PMHome

—

Elo 48%

Spread 41%

Cousins (+70)

no pick yet

—

Elo 52%

Spread 59%

Shough (-16)

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LVNO

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Monday, Sep 28

LARRams

BroncosDEN

Away12:20 AMHome

—

Elo 43%

Spread 57%

Stafford

no pick yet

—

Elo 57%

Spread 43%

Nix

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LARDEN

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Tuesday, Sep 29

PHIEagles

BearsCHI

Away12:15 AMHome

—

Elo 43%

Spread 46%

Hurts (+17)

no pick yet

—

Elo 57%

Spread 54%

Williams

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PHICHI

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