Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game data updated 13 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 27, 8:05 PM · outdoors
Minnesota Vikings1–0 · Elo 1555 · Carson Wentz (+43)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0–1 · Elo 1466 · Baker Mayfield · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | TB | MIN | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIN 62% | 38% | 62% | TB 1466 vs MIN 1555, implied spread TB +3.3 |
| Closing spread | TB 54% | 54% | 46% | TB -1.5 |
| The blend | TB 50% | 50% | 50% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Vikings: Elo 38%, market 54%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 43 Elo.
Details
- Rest: TB 7 days, MIN 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: TB 0 (Baker Mayfield), MIN +43 (Carson Wentz). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.