Beat the models, one Sunday at a time.

Delta Sunday is a free NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against three forecasters: Elo, a rating system built from results alone; the market, what the sportsbooks and prediction markets say; and the blend, our own, backtested on 24 seasons.

  1. Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you. Free.
  2. Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
  3. Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Week 13

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. Elo is the model you're trying to beat. The spread, sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are shown for reference, and they compete on the leaderboard too. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

Friday, Dec 4
KCChiefs
Elo: LAR 54%Spread: LAR 60%
RamsLAR
Away1:15 AMHome
Elo 46%
Spread 40%
Mahomes (+46)
no pick yet
Elo 54%
Spread 60%
Stafford
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
KCLAR
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Sunday, Dec 6
DETLions
Elo: DET 58%Spread: DET 60%
FalconsATL
Away6:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
Elo 58%
Spread 60%
Goff · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 42%
Spread 40%
Rush (-26)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
DETATL
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JAXJaguars
Elo: CHI 58%Spread: CHI 59%
BearsCHI
Away6:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
Elo 42%
Spread 41%
Lawrence
no pick yet
Elo 58%
Spread 59%
off bye · Williams
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
JAXCHI
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CINBengals
Elo: CIN 52%Spread: CIN 63%
BrownsCLE
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 52%
Spread 63%
Burrow (+17)
no pick yet
Elo 48%
Spread 37%
Watson (+34)
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CINCLE
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WSHCommanders
Elo: WSH 57%Spread: WSH 54%
TitansTEN
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 57%
Spread 54%
Daniels (+15)
no pick yet
Elo 43%
Spread 46%
Ward (+19)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
WSHTEN
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GBPackers
Elo: GB 53%Spread: GB 63%
SaintsNO
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 53%
Spread 63%
Love · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 47%
Spread 37%
Shough (-16)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
GBNO
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SF49ers
Elo: SF 59%Spread: SF 59%
GiantsNYG
Away6:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart
Elo 59%
Spread 59%
Purdy
no pick yet
Elo 41%
Spread 41%
Dart
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SFNYG
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LACChargers
Elo: TB 52%Spread: LAC 57%
BuccaneersTB
Away6:00 PMHome
Elo 48%
Spread 57%
Herbert (+18)
no pick yet
Elo 52%
Spread 43%
Mayfield
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LACTB
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MIADolphins
Elo: DEN 59%Spread: DEN 76%
BroncosDEN
Away9:05 PMHome
Elo 41%
Spread 24%
Willis (+90)
no pick yet
Elo 59%
Spread 76%
Nix
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MIADEN
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PHIEagles
Elo: PHI 62%Spread: PHI 74%
CardinalsARI
Away9:05 PMHome
Elo 62%
Spread 74%
Hurts (+17) · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 38%
Spread 26%
Brissett (-40)
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PHIARI
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CARPanthers
Elo: MIN 77%Spread: MIN 60%
VikingsMIN
Away9:25 PMHome
Elo 23%
Spread 40%
Young
no pick yet
Elo 77%
Spread 60%
Wentz (+43)
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CARMIN
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BUFBills
Elo: BUF 52%Spread: NE 54%
PatriotsNE
Away9:25 PMHome
Elo 52%
Spread 46%
Allen · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 48%
Spread 54%
Maye
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BUFNE
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Monday, Dec 7
HOUTexans
Elo: PIT 52%Spread: HOU 54%
SteelersPIT
Away1:20 AMHome
Elo 48%
Spread 54%
Stroud
no pick yet
Elo 52%
Spread 46%
Rodgers
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HOUPIT
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Tuesday, Dec 8
DALCowboys
Elo: SEA 72%Spread: SEA 63%
SeahawksSEA
Away1:15 AMHome
Elo 28%
Spread 37%
Prescott (+17) · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 72%
Spread 63%
Lock (-30)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
DALSEA
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