Beat the models, one Sunday at a time.

Delta Sunday is a free NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against three forecasters: Elo, a rating system built from results alone; the market, what the sportsbooks and prediction markets say; and the blend, our own, backtested on 24 seasons.

Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you. Free.
Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Create a free account How it works See this week's numbers

Week 5

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. Elo is the model you're trying to beat. The spread, sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are shown for reference, and they compete on the leaderboard too. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Wild Card Divisional Conf. Champ.Super Bowl

Friday, Oct 9

TBBuccaneers

CowboysDAL

Away12:15 AMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart

—

Elo 43%

Spread 40%

Mayfield

no pick yet

—

Elo 57%

Spread 60%

Prescott (+17)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

TBDAL

Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.

Sunday, Oct 11

PHIEagles

JaguarsJAX

Neutral site1:30 PM

—

Elo 47%

Spread 54%

Hurts (+17)

no pick yet

—

Elo 53%

Spread 46%

Lawrence

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

PHIJAX

Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.

HOUTexans

TitansTEN

Away5:00 PMHome

—

Elo 67%

Spread 60%

Stroud

no pick yet

—

Elo 33%

Spread 40%

Ward (+19)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

HOUTEN

Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.

CINBengals

DolphinsMIA

Away5:00 PMHome

—

Elo 42%

Spread 67%

Burrow (+17)

no pick yet

—

Elo 58%

Spread 33%

Willis (+90)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

CINMIA

Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.

LVRaiders

PatriotsNE

Away5:00 PMHome

—

Elo 33%

Spread 26%

Cousins (+70)

no pick yet

—

Elo 67%

Spread 74%

Maye

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

LVNE

Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.

MINVikings

SaintsNO

Away5:00 PMHome

—

Elo 63%

Spread 54%

Wentz (+43)

no pick yet

—

Elo 37%

Spread 46%

Shough (-16)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

MINNO

Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.

CLEBrowns

JetsNYJ

Away5:00 PMHome

—

Elo 45%

Spread 46%

Watson (+34) · off bye

no pick yet

—

Elo 55%

Spread 54%

Smith (+22)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

CLENYJ

Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.

INDColts

SteelersPIT

Away5:00 PMHome

—

Elo 32%

Spread 43%

Jones

no pick yet

—

Elo 68%

Spread 57%

off bye · Rodgers

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

INDPIT

Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.

NYGGiants

CommandersWSH

Away5:00 PMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 1 pts apart

—

Elo 42%

Spread 43%

Dart

no pick yet

—

Elo 58%

Spread 57%

Daniels (+15)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

NYGWSH

Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.

DENBroncos

ChargersLAC

Away8:05 PMHome

—

Elo 50%

Spread 43%

Nix

no pick yet

—

Elo 50%

Spread 57%

Herbert (+18)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

DENLAC

Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.

CHIBears

PackersGB

Away8:25 PMHome

—

Elo 51%

Spread 41%

Williams

no pick yet

—

Elo 49%

Spread 59%

Love

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

CHIGB

Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.

DETLions

CardinalsARI

Away8:25 PMHome

—

Elo 53%

Spread 74%

Goff

no pick yet

—

Elo 47%

Spread 26%

Brissett (-40)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

DETARI

Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.

SF49ers

SeahawksSEA

Away8:25 PMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are under 1 pt apart

—

Elo 40%

Spread 40%

Purdy

no pick yet

—

Elo 60%

Spread 60%

Lock (-30)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

SFSEA

Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.

Monday, Oct 12

BALRavens

FalconsATL

Away12:20 AMHome

Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 1 pts apart

—

Elo 62%

Spread 63%

Jackson (+13)

no pick yet

—

Elo 38%

Spread 37%

Rush (-26)

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

BALATL

Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.

Tuesday, Oct 13

BUFBills

RamsLAR

Away12:15 AMHome

—

Elo 52%

Spread 41%

Allen

no pick yet

—

Elo 48%

Spread 59%

Stafford

Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.

BUFLAR

Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.