Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Game data updated 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Friday, Oct 9, 12:15 AM · closed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0–1 · Elo 1466 · Baker Mayfield
Dallas Cowboys
0–1 · Elo 1449 · Dak Prescott (+17) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DAL | TB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DAL 57% | 57% | 43% | DAL 1449 vs TB 1466, implied spread DAL −1.9 |
| Closing spread | DAL 60% | 60% | 40% | DAL -3.5 |
| The blend | DAL 61% | 61% | 39% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Dallas Cowboys over the Buccaneers: Elo 57%, market 60%. Tight agreement: go above both. Prescott is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Rest: DAL 4 days, TB 4 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: DAL +17 (Dak Prescott), TB 0 (Baker Mayfield). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.