Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
Game data updated 13 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Monday, Oct 12, 12:20 AM · closed
Baltimore Ravens1–0 · Elo 1559 · Lamar Jackson (+13)
Atlanta Falcons
0–1 · Elo 1465 · Cooper Rush (-26) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | ATL | BAL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BAL 62% | 38% | 62% | ATL 1465 vs BAL 1559, implied spread ATL +3.4 |
| Closing spread | BAL 63% | 37% | 63% | ATL +4.5 |
| The blend | BAL 65% | 35% | 65% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Baltimore Ravens over the Falcons: Elo 62%, market 63%. Tight agreement: go above both. Rush is costing 26 Elo.
Details
- Rest: ATL 6 days, BAL 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: ATL -26 (Cooper Rush), BAL +13 (Lamar Jackson). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.