Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Game data updated 11 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 11, 8:05 PM · dome
Denver Broncos0–1 · Elo 1547 · Bo Nix
Los Angeles Chargers
0–1 · Elo 1481 · Justin Herbert (+18) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LAC | DEN | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | LAC 50% | 50% | 50% | LAC 1481 vs DEN 1547, implied spread LAC −0.0 |
| Closing spread | LAC 57% | 57% | 43% | LAC -2.5 |
| The blend | LAC 56% | 56% | 44% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Los Angeles Chargers over the Broncos: Elo 50%, market 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Herbert is worth 18 Elo.
Details
- Rest: LAC 7 days, DEN 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: LAC +18 (Justin Herbert), DEN -1 (Bo Nix). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.