Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Game data updated 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 11, 5:00 PM · outdoors
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | TEN | HOU | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | HOU 67% | 33% | 67% | TEN 1364 vs HOU 1556, implied spread TEN +5.0 |
| Closing spread | HOU 60% | 40% | 60% | TEN +3.5 |
| The blend | HOU 62% | 38% | 62% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Houston Texans over the Titans: Elo 67%, market 60%. Clear favorite, take the average. Ward is worth 19 Elo.
Details
- Rest: TEN 7 days, HOU 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: TEN +19 (Cam Ward), HOU +1 (C.J. Stroud). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.