Beat the models, one Sunday at a time.

Delta Sunday is a free NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against three forecasters: Elo, a rating system built from results alone; the market, what the sportsbooks and prediction markets say; and the blend, our own, backtested on 24 seasons.

  1. Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you. Free.
  2. Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
  3. Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.

Week 4

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks save as you go and lock at kickoff. Elo is the model you're trying to beat. The spread, sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are shown for reference, and they compete on the leaderboard too. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

Friday, Oct 2
PITSteelers
Elo: PIT 53%Spread: PIT 57%
BrownsCLE
Away12:15 AMHome
Elo 53%
Spread 57%
Rodgers
no pick yet
Elo 47%
Spread 43%
Watson (+34)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
PITCLE
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Sunday, Oct 4
INDColts
Elo: WSH 52%Spread: WSH 54%
CommandersWSH
Neutral site1:30 PM
Elo 48%
Spread 46%
Jones
no pick yet
Elo 52%
Spread 54%
Daniels (+15)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
INDWSH
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NEPatriots
Elo: BUF 62%Spread: BUF 59%
BillsBUF
Away5:00 PMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 3 pts apart
Elo 38%
Spread 41%
Maye
no pick yet
Elo 62%
Spread 59%
Allen
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
NEBUF
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NYJJets
Elo: CHI 69%Spread: CHI 74%
BearsCHI
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 31%
Spread 26%
Smith (+22)
no pick yet
Elo 69%
Spread 74%
Williams
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NYJCHI
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JAXJaguars
Elo: JAX 51%Spread: CIN 57%
BengalsCIN
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 51%
Spread 43%
Lawrence
no pick yet
Elo 49%
Spread 57%
Burrow (+17)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
JAXCIN
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ARICardinals
Elo: NYG 60%Spread: NYG 70%
GiantsNYG
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 40%
Spread 30%
Brissett (-40)
no pick yet
Elo 60%
Spread 70%
Dart
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
ARINYG
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LARRams
Elo: PHI 59%Spread: LAR 54%
EaglesPHI
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 41%
Spread 54%
Stafford
no pick yet
Elo 59%
Spread 46%
Hurts (+17)
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LARPHI
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GBPackers
Elo: GB 52%Spread: GB 54%
BuccaneersTB
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 52%
Spread 54%
Love · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 48%
Spread 46%
Mayfield
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
GBTB
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TENTitans
Elo: BAL 80%Spread: BAL 74%
RavensBAL
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 20%
Spread 26%
Ward (+19)
no pick yet
Elo 80%
Spread 74%
Jackson (+13)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
TENBAL
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DALCowboys
Elo: HOU 69%Spread: HOU 57%
TexansHOU
Away5:00 PMHome
Elo 31%
Spread 43%
Prescott (+17)
no pick yet
Elo 69%
Spread 57%
Stroud
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DALHOU
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MIADolphins
Elo: MIN 66%Spread: MIN 71%
VikingsMIN
Away8:05 PMHome
Elo 34%
Spread 29%
Willis (+90)
no pick yet
Elo 66%
Spread 71%
Wentz (+43)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
MIAMIN
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KCChiefs
Elo: KC 54%Spread: KC 66%
RaidersLV
Away8:25 PMHome
Elo 54%
Spread 66%
Mahomes (+46)
no pick yet
Elo 46%
Spread 34%
Cousins (+70)
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KCLV
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DENBroncos
Elo: SF 62%Spread: SF 57%
49ersSF
Away8:25 PMHome
Elo 38%
Spread 43%
Nix
no pick yet
Elo 62%
Spread 57%
Purdy
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DENSF
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LACChargers
Elo: SEA 71%Spread: SEA 59%
SeahawksSEA
Away8:25 PMHome
Elo 29%
Spread 41%
Herbert (+18)
no pick yet
Elo 71%
Spread 59%
Lock (-30)
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LACSEA
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Monday, Oct 5
DETLions
Elo: DET 55%Spread: DET 59%
PanthersCAR
Away12:20 AMHome
Elo 55%
Spread 59%
Goff
no pick yet
Elo 45%
Spread 41%
Young
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DETCAR
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Tuesday, Oct 6
ATLFalcons
Elo: NO 56%Spread: NO 57%
SaintsNO
Away12:15 AMHome
Tight agreement · Elo and the market are 2 pts apart
Elo 44%
Spread 43%
Rush (-26) · off bye
no pick yet
Elo 56%
Spread 57%
Shough (-16)
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
ATLNO
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