Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
Game data updated 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 4, 8:25 PM · outdoors
Los Angeles Chargers0–1 · Elo 1481 · Justin Herbert (+18)
Seattle Seahawks
1–0 · Elo 1636 · Drew Lock (-30) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | SEA | LAC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SEA 71% | 71% | 29% | SEA 1636 vs LAC 1481, implied spread SEA −6.2 |
| Closing spread | SEA 59% | 59% | 41% | SEA -3 |
| The blend | SEA 62% | 62% | 38% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Seattle Seahawks over the Chargers: Elo 71%, market 59%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Lock is costing 30 Elo; Herbert is worth 18 Elo.
Details
- Rest: SEA 7 days, LAC 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: SEA -30 (Drew Lock), LAC +18 (Justin Herbert). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.