New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Game data updated 11 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 4, 5:00 PM · outdoors
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | BUF | NE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BUF 62% | 62% | 38% | BUF 1612 vs NE 1564, implied spread BUF −3.4 |
| Closing spread | BUF 59% | 59% | 41% | BUF -3 |
| The blend | BUF 62% | 62% | 38% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Buffalo Bills over the Patriots: Elo 62%, market 59%. Tight agreement: go above both.
Details
- Rest: BUF 7 days, NE 7 days.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.