Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
Game data updated 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 4, 5:00 PM · closed
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | HOU | DAL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | HOU 69% | 69% | 31% | HOU 1556 vs DAL 1449, implied spread HOU −5.6 |
| Closing spread | HOU 57% | 57% | 43% | HOU -2.5 |
| The blend | HOU 60% | 60% | 40% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Houston Texans over the Cowboys: Elo 69%, market 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Rest: HOU 7 days, DAL 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: HOU +1 (C.J. Stroud), DAL +17 (Dak Prescott). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.