Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Game data updated 11 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 4, 8:25 PM · dome
Kansas City Chiefs1–0 · Elo 1518 · Patrick Mahomes (+46)
Las Vegas Raiders
1–0 · Elo 1420 · Kirk Cousins (+70) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LV | KC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | KC 54% | 46% | 54% | LV 1420 vs KC 1518, implied spread LV +1.0 |
| Closing spread | KC 66% | 34% | 66% | LV +5.5 |
| The blend | KC 63% | 37% | 63% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Kansas City Chiefs over the Raiders: Elo 54%, market 66%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo; Mahomes is worth 46 Elo.
Details
- Rest: LV 7 days, KC 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: LV +70 (Kirk Cousins), KC +46 (Patrick Mahomes). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.