Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Game data updated 12 min ago · markets priced 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Friday, Sep 25, 12:15 AM · outdoors · wind 3 mph, 55°F
Atlanta Falcons
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | GB | ATL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | GB 65% | 65% | 35% | GB 1500 vs ATL 1465, implied spread GB −4.4 |
| Closing spread | GB 69% | 69% | 31% | GB -6.5 |
| Sportsbooks | GB 72% | 72% | 28% | |
| Kalshi | GB 73% | 73% | 28% | |
| Polymarket | GB 74% | 74% | 27% | |
| The blend | GB 71% | 71% | 29% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Green Bay Packers over the Falcons: Elo 65%, market 73%. Clear favorite, take the average. Rush is costing 26 Elo.
Details
- Importance 49 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 28.
- Rest: GB 4 days, ATL 4 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: GB +0 (Jordan Love), ATL -26 (Cooper Rush). How that works.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 3 mph, 55°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 4 AM; last change Fri 4:37 AM. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (GB) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 73% | 73% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 74% | 74% | — | 0 |
| Sportsbooks | 72% | 72% | — | 0 |