Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
Game data updated 11 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 16, 2026 · Friday, Dec 25, 9:30 PM · outdoors
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DEN | BUF | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BUF 51% | 49% | 51% | DEN 1547 vs BUF 1612, implied spread DEN +0.3 |
| Closing spread | BUF 54% | 46% | 54% | DEN +1.5 |
| The blend | BUF 54% | 46% | 54% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Coin flips
Every model has the game between 45% and 55%. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game. Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns.
Buffalo Bills over the Broncos: Elo 51%, market 54%. Coin flip: stay near 50.
Details
- Rest: DEN 5 days, BUF 6 days.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Friday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.