Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Game data updated 12 min ago · markets priced 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 20, 5:00 PM · outdoors · wind 9 mph, 65°F
Minnesota Vikings
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | CHI | MIN | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CHI 51% | 51% | 49% | CHI 1557 vs MIN 1555, implied spread CHI −0.3 |
| Closing spread | CHI 63% | 63% | 37% | CHI -4.5 |
| Sportsbooks | CHI 66% | 66% | 34% | |
| Kalshi | CHI 66% | 66% | 35% | |
| Polymarket | CHI 66% | 66% | 35% | |
| The blend | CHI 62% | 62% | 38% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Chicago Bears over the Vikings: Elo 51%, market 66%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 43 Elo.
Details
- Importance 45 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 52.
- Rest: CHI 7 days, MIN 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: CHI 0 (Caleb Williams), MIN +43 (Carson Wentz). How that works.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 9 mph, 65°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 4 AM; last change Fri 4:37 AM. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (CHI) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 66% | 66% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 66% | 66% | — | 0 |
| Sportsbooks | 66% | 66% | — | 0 |