Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills
Final, recorded 3 h ago · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Friday, Sep 18, 12:15 AM · outdoors
Final: DET 31, BUF 41. Elo moved BUF 1595 → 1612 and DET 1535 → 1519.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | BUF | DET | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BUF 64% | 64% | 36% | +12.0 | BUF 1595 vs DET 1535, implied spread BUF −3.9 |
| Closing spread | BUF 66% | 66% | 34% | +13.4 | BUF -5.5 |
| The blend | BUF 67% | 67% | 33% | +14.1 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Buffalo Bills over the Lions: Elo 64%, market 66%. Tight agreement: go above both.
Details
- Rest: BUF 4 days, DET 4 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: BUF -10 (Josh Allen), DET 0 (Jared Goff). How that works.
- Weather. No forecast was recorded for this game.
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.