Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Game data updated 12 min ago · markets priced 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Monday, Sep 21, 12:20 AM · outdoors · wind 12 mph, 75°F
Indianapolis Colts
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | KC | IND | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | KC 70% | 70% | 30% | KC 1518 vs IND 1472, implied spread KC −5.8 |
| Closing spread | KC 69% | 69% | 31% | KC -6.5 |
| Sportsbooks | KC 72% | 72% | 28% | |
| Kalshi | KC 73% | 73% | 28% | |
| Polymarket | KC 74% | 74% | 27% | |
| The blend | KC 74% | 74% | 26% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Kansas City Chiefs over the Colts: Elo 70%, market 73%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo.
Details
- Importance 40 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 32.
- Rest: KC 6 days, IND 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: KC +46 (Patrick Mahomes), IND -6 (Daniel Jones). How that works.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 12 mph, 75°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 4 AM; last change Fri 4:37 AM. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (KC) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 73% | 73% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 74% | 74% | — | 0 |
| Sportsbooks | 72% | 72% | — | 0 |