New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
Game data updated 14 min ago · markets priced 14 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 20, 5:00 PM · outdoors · wind 7 mph, 75°F
New Orleans Saints
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | BAL | NO | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BAL 72% | 72% | 28% | BAL 1559 vs NO 1472, implied spread BAL −6.6 |
| Closing spread | BAL 71% | 71% | 29% | BAL -7.5 |
| Sportsbooks | BAL 77% | 77% | 23% | |
| Kalshi | BAL 79% | 79% | 21% | |
| Polymarket | BAL 79% | 79% | 21% | |
| The blend | BAL 77% | 77% | 23% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Baltimore Ravens over the Saints: Elo 72%, market 78%. Clear favorite, take the average. Shough is costing 16 Elo.
Details
- Importance 46 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 38.
- Rest: BAL 7 days, NO 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: BAL +13 (Lamar Jackson), NO -16 (Tyler Shough). How that works.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 7 mph, 75°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 4 AM; last change Fri 4:37 AM. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (BAL) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 79% | 79% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 79% | 79% | — | 0 |
| Sportsbooks | 77% | 77% | — | 0 |