Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Game data updated 12 min ago · markets priced 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 20, 5:00 PM · outdoors · wind 3 mph, 58°F
Pittsburgh Steelers
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NE | PIT | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NE 66% | 66% | 34% | NE 1564 vs PIT 1526, implied spread NE −4.6 |
| Closing spread | NE 66% | 66% | 34% | NE -5.5 |
| Sportsbooks | NE 68% | 68% | 32% | |
| Kalshi | NE 69% | 69% | 31% | |
| Polymarket | NE 69% | 69% | 31% | |
| The blend | NE 70% | 70% | 30% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
New England Patriots over the Steelers: Elo 66%, market 68%. Tight agreement: go above both. NE off a bye.
Details
- Importance 59 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 48.
- Rest: NE 11 days, PIT 7 days. NE off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 3 mph, 58°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 4 AM; last change Fri 4:37 AM. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (NE) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 69% | 69% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 69% | 69% | — | 0 |
| Sportsbooks | 68% | 68% | — | 0 |